Every founder gets lied to. Not maliciously — politely. Friends say the idea is great. Strangers say they'd "definitely use it". A waitlist fills up with people who will never pay. And because you want the idea to work, you believe all of it.
This checklist is designed to filter that out. Each step asks for evidence that's hard to fake. Work through it in order. If an idea fails a step, fix it or drop it before moving on.
35%
OF FAILED STARTUPS CITED "NO MARKET NEED"
In CB Insights' 2021 analysis of startup post-mortems, lack of market need was the second most common reason, just behind running out of cash. In its earlier edition it was first, at 42%.
Why startups say they failed (CB Insights, 2021)
% of post-mortems citing each reason. Startups often cite more than one.
Notice that running out of cash is usually a symptom. Companies run out of money because customers didn't show up fast enough. Most of the reasons on that chart can be tested before you build.
The 7-point checklist
1. Write the problem in your customer's words
Write one sentence: who has the problem, what it costs them, and how often it happens. No product words allowed. "Independent gym owners lose members every January because they can't follow up with people who stop coming" is a problem. "An AI retention platform for gyms" is a solution looking for one.
Pass if: someone in your target market reads the sentence and says "yes, that's exactly it" without you explaining it.
2. Find the pain in the wild
Before talking to anyone, look for evidence that the problem exists without your prompting. Search forums, Reddit, review sites and social media for complaints, "how do I…" questions and homemade workarounds — spreadsheets, scripts, hired help.